The groundhogs got it all wrong. Spring's not coming early this year. In fact, Environment Canada predicts a whole lot more cold air and snow might still be on the way.
Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips has just released the agency's three-month forecast for the spring. He predicts that between two-thirds and three-quarters of the country will be colder than normal for the next three months.
"Spring is always reluctant to arrive in Canada and it looks like this year is not going to be the exception," Phillips told CTV News Channel Tuesday.
Eastern Nunavut, most of Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia will enjoy a warmer-than-normal spring, the forecast predicts. "But for the rest of us, don't write the obituary on winter quite yet," he said.
British Columbia, the Yukon, the Prairies, the Northwest Territories, most of Ontario, and a good chunk of Nunavut will see colder temperatures this spring. Western Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Labrador, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario will have near-normal temperatures.
As for precipitation, southern B.C., most of Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and Nunavut will see a wetter-than-normal spring, while precipitation will be near normal in northern Ontario and most of the Prairies.
And a good chunk of that precipitation will come in the form of -- you guessed it -- snow.
While many of us try to forget the memories of snowy springs gone by, Phillips points out that in a typical year, most parts of Canada still get anywhere from 15 to 30 per cent of their annual snowfall after March 1.
"So we haven't finished shovelling and plowing and pushing the snow yet," he said.
He notes that Canadians may have gotten a little spoiled by last year's early spring, when most of the country saw very little snow after March 1. In fact, spring 2010 was one of the earliest and balmiest on record.
This year, we have La Nina to thank for the particularly snowy winter we're just emerging from, and that's going to translate into a snowy and late spring. So gardeners, golfers and everyone else who's eager for spring to arrive will need to be patient.
"This is going to be a typical kind of spring in Canada," Phillips says.
The climatologist notes that a slow-to-arrive spring is not necessarily a bad thing, especially for areas that have flood concerns, such as New Brunswick, the Red River area, and parts of Saskatchewan.
Those areas don't want a quick thaw because that only results in swollen waterways. Below-normal temperatures are preferable allow the ice to melt off slowly.
"You don't want to go from slush to sweat; you want to ease into spring," Phillips said.
And for those lamenting more cold and snow, Phillips reminds that the chills of early spring aren't anything like the chills of mid-winter.
"March cold is 10 degrees (Celsius) warmer than January cold. Everything is relative to the month we're talking about," he says.
